Moderate El Nino Emerging

Update: Saturday 11/22 at 11 am

As I suspected the snow levels from this system remain above 8000 feet. It is still raining at all resorts. While the snow levels are slowly dropping, the brunt of the storm has moved through the region. There is still a chance we could pickup few inches of wet, heavy snow. Next system to affect the area will next Friday/Saturday. The week will bring warm temperatures as the high pressure builds in. As we get to the weekend, we should have a much better indication whether the pattern has transitioned into a significant weather wet pattern.

 

Thursday 11/20

While the east coast is having the coldest early November since 1976, we are struggling for cold temperatures and a stubborn high pressure system. We won’t get what we need (moisture) until that cold is out of the way. Its 2:30 here in Kirkwood and it is just starting to snow.  We will probably get a few inches tonight and then by Saturday morning, another 3-4 inches of wet, heavy snow. Nothing after that until possibly Wednesday, but that is sketchy at best. By then of next week, the Hemispheric Pattern will be resetting itself and the 1 st week of December might give us something to look forward too. MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is forecast to move into phase 3 and if that happens it could pull the trigger for some real snow. Keep your eyes on the Indian ocean for the appearance of massive convection in that region and that will verify the pattern. MJO is less effective in El Nino years but we need something to wake the atmosphere up. We have moved into a moderate El Nino and if that holds for 3 months it will be declared an official El Nino event which would result in a much needed wet or even average year.

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