Wednesday October 21, 2015
While El Nino has has been strengthening over the last couple of months, we have been hit with some very unusual weather to say the least. The trough which hit us late last week and over the weekend was the same one which provided a dusting of snow 2 weeks. It was a cutoff low which meandered down the coast, then over into Arizona, then into New Mexico, Northern Mexico, to the Sea of Cortez and finally off the coast of Southern California and up into western Nevada. Quite strange. So now we have Hurricane Olaf out in the pacific west of Hawaii as well as a big cyclone off the of Japan. The cyclone is moving north and should constructively phase with the westerlies and dig a trough which will pick up the remnants of Olaf and provide enough energy to bring the jet south over California. This could be a pretty nice system to get the winter going if everything comes together.
We are on course for a significant winter and projections are showing a 50% that we could get 140% of normal.